Actual business performance 2025 compared with our guidance
In the period under review, TUI Group’s revenue rose from €23.2bn to €24.2bn. However, at 4.4 % the year-on-year revenue growth at constant currency fell short of the 5 to 10% growth assumed in our guidance. The lower growth is primarily attributable to weaker demand in individual source markets and capacity adjustments in our Airline. Customer numbers in Markets + Airline decreased by 0.2 % to 20.2 m in financial year 2025, whereas we had anticipated an increase in our planning.
TUI Group’s underlying EBIT rose by €116.9m to an operating profit of €1,413.1m in financial year 2025. In the framework of our Q3 reporting, we had already raised our guidance for underlying EBIT growth, originally expected to account for 7 to 10% at constant currency, to a range of 9 to 11% in response to the strong performance. In percentage terms. The year-on-year improvement of 12.6% in underlying EBIT at constant currency exceeded the range indicated in our original guidance and in the raised guidance in the framework of our Q3 2025 reporting, due in particular to better-than-expected earnings in the Hotels & Resorts and Cruises segments.
The results in the individual segments developed as follows:
In the Hotels & Resorts segment, underlying EBIT saw a strong increase from €668.4m to €735.0m in financial year 2025, above all due to an improved business performance at Riu. A slight improvement had been expected.
In financial year 2025, underlying EBIT in the Cruises segment jumped considerably by €106.8m to €481.1m, driven by a demand for cruises that exceeded our expectations. A slight increase in earnings had been forecast.
Underlying EBIT in the TUI Musement segment rose significantly in financial year 2025 from €49.2m to €67.2m. This positive development was driven by the growth of this segment and the expansion of the B2B offering with partners. We had anticipated a strong increase in earnings.
The Markets + Airline business faced a challenging operating environment with high costs with all regions recording lower earnings. In total, underlying EBIT decreased significantly in 2025 from €303.9m in the prior year to €199.9m.
The net costs of €44.2m (previous year €20.9m) adjusted in the income statement in the period under review were within the range of net costs of €40m to €60m at constant currency expected in our guidance, as the restructuring expenses incurred for the transformation of Markets + Airline, launched in September 2024, and the voluntary leaver programme were partly offset by positive gains on disposal.
Due to the improvement in underlying EBIT, financial year 2025 also saw a slight improvement in ROIC year-on-year, as expected, and a strong improvement in Economic Value Added year-on-year, surpassing expectations. In the period under review, TUI Group’s ROIC stood at 26.53% (previous year 24.88%). Taking account of the Group’s weighted average cost of capital of 10.83% (previous year 10.87%), this resulted in positive Economic Value Added of €836.2m (previous year positive Economic Value Added of €729.9m).
In the period under review, the cash outflows from net capital expenditure on property, plant and equipment and financial investments of €675.7m (previous year net outflow of €602.2m) were within the expected range of €620m to €680m.
In our guidance, we had expected a slight improvement in net debt. Net debt reported at the end of the financial year 2025 amounted to €1.3bn (previous year €1.6bn). The strong improvement was due to the development of cash flow from operating activities and the slightly lower liabilities from leases.
For financial year 2025, we had expected a slight reduction in specific CO2 emissions as against financial year 2024. In financial year 2025, the relative CO2 emissions of our airlines decreased by 0.4% from 60.7 to 60.5g/RPK. At a nearly constant load factor year-on-year, this reduction was primarily driven by our fleet renewal programme, under which older aircraft were replaced with modern, more carbon-efficient models. In financial year 2025, we continued to operate 19 Boeing 787 aircraft. During the reporting period, we expanded our Boeing 737 Max fleet from 42 to 45 aircraft.
Projected development of global situation
Macroeconomic situation and market development in tourism
| Projected development of World Output | ||
|---|---|---|
| Var. % | 2026 | 2025 |
| World | + 3.1 | + 3.2 |
| Euro zone | + 1.1 | + 1.2 |
| Germany | + 0.9 | + 0.2 |
| France | + 0.9 | + 0.7 |
| UK | + 1.3 | + 1.3 |
| US | + 2.1 | + 2.0 |
| Russia | + 1.0 | + 0.6 |
| Japan | + 0.6 | + 1.1 |
| China | + 4.2 | + 4.8 |
| India | + 6.2 | + 6.6 |
| Source: Projections of International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, October 2025 | ||
For calendar year 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts moderate global growth of 3.1%. According to the experts, the global economy will remain under the impact of great uncertainty, persistent protectionism and geopolitical tensions. Global inflation will continue to fall, albeit with variation across countries. Economic activity faces significantly elevated risks, particularly from the potential escalation of trade conflicts and uncertainty in the financial markets. In Europe, growth will be hampered by weak productivity gains, ageing populations and extensive regulation. On the upside, a recovery in private consumption, higher real wages and expansionary fiscal policy in some countries will generate momentum. Energy prices, structural reforms and stable relations in global trade remain the key drivers for 2026.1
The current trends in global tourism are expected to hold up in 2026. Demand is projected to remain high, with Africa and Asia-Pacific delivering particularly dynamic growth. Development is likely to be stable in Europe but more subdued in North America and the Caribbean. Customers are increasingly focused on value for money, sustainability and new experiences. Travel behaviour is influenced by rising costs, geopolitical uncertainties and inflation, but no slump is expected. Digitalisation and innovation are driving the sector, with sustainable products and services gaining in importance. Overall, market sentiment will remain positive as markets continue to diversify and create opportunities for destinations and providers.2
Effects on TUI Group
As a global tourism provider, TUI Group depends on the political and legal framework and on consumer demand in the major source markets in which we operate with our hotel, cruise and tour operator brands. Our budget is based on IMF’s assumptions about the future development of the global economy and takes its guidance from UNWTO’s long-term forecast.
Expected development of Group earnings
TUI Group
The translation of the income statements of foreign subsidiaries in our consolidated financial statements is based on average monthly exchange rates. TUI Group generates a considerable proportion of consolidated revenue and substantial earnings and cash flow contributions in non-euro currencies, in particular the pound sterling, the US dollar and the Swedish krona. Taking account of the seasonality in tourism, the value of these currencies against the euro in the course of the year therefore exerts a major impact on the financial indicators displayed in TUI AG’s consolidated financial statements.
Our key financial performance indicators for our earnings position in financial year 2026 are revenue and underlying EBIT.
Definition of underlying EBIT see chapter Value-oriented Group management
Key performance indicators used for regular value analysis are Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Economic Value Added. ROIC for a given segment is shown against the segment-specific cost of capital.
For financial year 2026, we expect to see slight growth in customer volumes.
In its business plans, Hotels & Resorts expects to deliver a slight increase in earnings, in particular against the backdrop of the investments made in the last few financial years as well as asset-light capacity expansion, for instance through management and franchise contracts and investments in joint ventures and associates.
The Cruises segment expects to deliver slight growth in earnings, in particular due to the expansion of the fleet operated by TUI Cruises, in financial year 2026. In the spring of 2025, TUI Cruises commissioned a new ship. In financial year 2026, the fleet will be expanded to include nine vessels (excluding the five cruise liners of Hapag-Lloyd Cruises).
For TUI Musement, we expect to see a strong improvement in earnings, driven by the development of customer volumes in Markets + Airline and the growth delivered by TUI Musement due to the expansion of its own and direct distribution via the internet and the app.
For Markets + Airline, a strong increase in underlying EBIT is expected. The transformation of Markets + Airline into an integrated global platform for selected holiday experiences is planned to generate growth and increase profitability.
| Expected development of Group turnover and underlying EBIT | ||
|---|---|---|
| € million | 2025 | 2026¹ |
| Revenue | 24,179 | 2 - 4% increase |
| Underlying EBIT | 1,413 | 7 - 10% increase |
| Adjustments | -44 | approx. €70 - 90m costs |
| ¹ Variance year-on-year assuming constant foreign exchange rates are applied to the result in the current and prior period and within the framework of the macroeconmic and geopolitical uncertainties currently known, especially around the Middle East | ||
Revenue
In the period under review, TUI Group revenue totalled €24.2bn. For financial year 2026, we expect TUI Group’s revenue to increase by 2 to 4% year-on-year at constant currency.
Underlying EBIT
TUI Group’s underlying EBIT in financial year 2025 amounted to €1,413.1m. For financial year 2026, we expect TUI Group’s underlying EBIT to grow by 7 to 10% year-on-year at constant currency.
Adjustments
For financial year 2026, we expect a net negative effect from adjustments in a range of €70m to €90m at constant currency.
ROIC and Economic Value Added
Due to the expected improvement in our operating result, ROIC and Economic Value Added are also predicted to improve slightly year-on-year, depending on the development of TUI Group’s capital costs.
Expected development of financial position
To forecast TUI Group’s financial position in financial year 2026, we have defined the Group’s net capital expenditure and investments and its net financial position as key performance indicators.
| Expected development of Group financial position | ||
|---|---|---|
| € million | 2025 | 2026¹ |
| Net capex and investments | 675.7 | approx. €860 - 900m |
| Net debt | 1,304.9 | slight decrease |
| ¹ Subject to clarification of Boeing aircraft delivery schedule and the consequent pre-delivery payment (PDPs) schedule | ||
Net capex and investments
For financial year 2026, we expect net capex and investments in a range of €860m to €900m.
Net financial position
For financial year 2026, we expect the Group’s net debt to decrease slightly.
Sustainable development
Climate protection and emissions
We consider the specific CO2 emissions (in g CO2/RPK) of our aircraft fleet to be the most significant non-financial performance indicator. Provided that deliveries of the aircraft ordered as part of the fleet renewal programme proceed as planned, we expect a slight reduction in specific CO2 emissions in the 2026 financial year compared with the 2025 financial year.
Overall Executive Board assessment of TUI Group’s current situation and expected development
At the date of preparation of the management report (8 December 2025), the Executive Board assumes that customer volumes will grow slightly year-on-year in 2026.
Overall, we therefore expect TUI Group’s underlying EBIT to improve by 7 to 10% year-on-year on a constant currency basis in financial year 2026.
Outlook for TUI AG
The future business performance of TUI AG is essentially subject to the same factors as those impacting TUI Group. Due to the business ties between TUI AG and its Group companies, the outlook, opportunities and risks presented for TUI Group are largely mirrored by expectations for TUI AG. The comments made for TUI Group therefore also apply to TUI AG. We forecast a significant decline in revenue, as financial year 2025 was positively influenced by one-off revenue from the extension of an existing licence agreement.
Opportunity report
TUI Group’s opportunity management follows the Group strategy. Responsibility for systematically identifying and taking up opportunities rests with the operational management of the Hotels & Resorts, Cruises and TUI Musement segments as well as our source markets. Market scenarios and critical success factors for the individual sectors are analysed and assessed in the framework of the Group-wide planning and control process. The core task of the Group’s Executive Board is to secure profitable growth for TUI Group by optimising the shareholding portfolio and developing the Group structure over the long term.
Opportunities and risks arising from macro trends
In particular, a faster normalisation of the geopolitical and economic environment would have a positive impact on TUI Group and its segments in financial year 2026.
Corporate strategy opportunities
Opportunities arise in particular from the consistent integration of artificial intelligence in all business areas, facilitating innovation in travel search and booking. Moreover, TUI Group seeks to achieve economies of scale through the ongoing transformation and focus on digital marketing strategies as well as leveraging synergies within the Group. This will create opportunities for additional value accretion and competitive edge beyond the current planning.
Operational opportunities
Operationally, TUI Group faces opportunities due to the continued optimisation and scaling of its global organisational and airline structures. Dynamic flight and hotel accommodation sourcing and the expansion of multi-channel distribution, in particular through the app-first personalisation, are key enablers of customer volume growth and higher margins. Further short-term growth beyond existing plans may be delivered by entering new markets (e.g. Romania).
Climate-related opportunities
TUI Group pursues an ambitious sustainability agenda with science-based targets for CO2 emissions in airline, cruise and hotel operation. Climate-related opportunities arise, in particular, from the consistent refleeting, the use of more efficient aircraft and the conversion to more sustainable operating models. These measures will not only reduce environmental impacts but also improve the cost structure and strengthen TUI’s brand image. In addition, positioning the Group as a pioneer of sustainable tourism will enable TUI to tap into new customer segments and stand out from the competition.